AGP Executive Report

Business Disruption: Houthi attacks that killed three people at Riyadh airport triggered widespread flight cancellations, raising travel and operating concerns as oil prices climbed amid threats to regional supply routes. Investment Events: Organisers say major energy and investment conferences in Riyadh will proceed this month despite the security risks, with some delegates switching to remote participation. Energy: Aramco plans to fulfil European buyers’ November orders in full after the East-West Pipeline resumed operations. Industry: Al Yamamah Steel won SAR254 million in contracts to supply transmission towers for 380kV power lines, while Saudi Readymix and ClimateCrete agreed to test recycled and re-engineered sand for lower-carbon concrete. Technology: SDAIA says it trained more than 70 specialists in quantum computing this year, supporting the Kingdom’s push to build advanced technology skills.

Aviation Disruption: Houthi-claimed attacks on Riyadh airport killed three people, including a Saudia pilot, and damaged an aircraft. More than 124 flights were canceled before the airport reopened, putting pressure on travel and business links. Energy & Shipping: Fighting around Bab el-Mandeb threatens a key trade route as oil prices climb above $100 a barrel, raising supply and cost risks for Saudi businesses. Investment & Connectivity: Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to strengthen rail links and power-grid connections, a move aimed at improving cross-border trade. Almarai also outlined a $4 billion expansion through 2031. Economic Resilience: Saudi officials say private-sector growth and the wider economy remain resilient despite regional tensions.

Aviation Disruption: Houthi-claimed attacks on Riyadh airport killed three people and damaged a Saudia aircraft. The airport reopened, but airlines canceled or suspended flights, disrupting travel and business links. Oil Markets: Crude eased Friday after President Trump ruled out attacks on Iran before US midterm elections, but Brent remained on track for a weekly gain amid regional tensions. Economic Resilience: Saudi officials said the economy and private sector remain resilient despite the conflict. Infrastructure: Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to strengthen rail and electricity connections, supporting regional trade and energy links. Corporate Investment: Almarai outlined a $4 billion expansion through 2031, while French lender Natixis expects double-digit growth in the region and plans to add staff in Saudi Arabia. SoftBank is also reportedly seeking up to $100 billion from Gulf investors to fund its AI ambitions.

Energy Markets: Brent climbed above $104 a barrel as Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and threats to shipping heightened supply fears; prices eased after President Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before the US midterms. Transport and Trade: Attacks on Riyadh and Abha airports killed three people and injured 36, prompting flight cancellations and suspensions. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also agreed to study rail links and electricity trade to improve cross-border connectivity. Investment: Almarai outlined a $4 billion expansion through 2031, while GAS Arabian Services secured a gas-delivery contract worth more than SAR288 million. Industry: Saudi Readymix and the Oil Sustainability Program will assess lower-impact concrete materials, including alternatives made from drilling and construction waste. LogiPoint is building a controlled-ambient logistics facility in Jeddah, scheduled for delivery by year-end.

Security and Markets: Houthi attacks on Riyadh and Abha airports killed three people and injured 36, while Saudi forces said they intercepted three missiles. Brent crude topped $105 a barrel and Gulf stocks fell as investors weighed wider conflict and risks to shipping. Economic Outlook: The World Bank expects Saudi Arabia’s economy to contract 2% in 2026, with disruption to regional energy flows weighing on growth; it forecasts a 4.3% average contraction across GCC economies. Energy and Industry: Aramco and NESR are developing Saudi Arabia’s first direct lithium extraction project, targeting 2,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate a year from late 2027. Aramco also awarded KBR engineering work for its Marjan offshore field. Trade and Transport: Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to study power-grid links, electricity trading and rail connections to improve freight flows. Separately, EVIQ, Hala Auto and DSV are teaming up to electrify part of DSV’s logistics fleet in Riyadh.

Security and Markets: Houthi attacks on Riyadh and Abha airports killed three people and injured 36, prompting Saudi-led coalition strikes on 82 targets in Yemen. The escalation threatens regional transport and energy routes. Energy Resilience: Saudi Arabia says East-West pipeline flows have recovered to 5.8 million barrels a day, helping bypass Hormuz disruption. Oil prices remain volatile as traders weigh attacks and supply risks. Aramco’s strategy chief says the crisis reinforces oil and gas’s role in the global economy rather than speeding the shift away from fossil fuels. Economic Outlook: Saudi construction activity grew for a fifth straight month as new orders rose. S&P says the non-oil transition is building long-term resilience, while Moody’s expects spending restraint to support fiscal recovery in 2027.

Energy and Markets: Gulf stocks fell as Houthi attacks heightened supply fears and oil climbed above $100 a barrel. Saudi Arabia says its East-West pipeline is back to 5.8 million barrels a day, but Aramco’s chief warns rebuilding global oil stocks could take up to two years. Investment Strategy: Moody’s says tighter spending and a focus on higher-return projects could support Saudi Arabia’s fiscal recovery, while the kingdom remains open to sports investment through more commercially grounded partnerships. Trade and Industry: Saudi Arabia is developing new routes to help its companies enter Syria, building on investment agreements worth more than $6.4 billion. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia also pledged deeper cooperation in energy and industry. Aviation: Saudia Group is nearing approval for a major aircraft order to support growth and replace older planes, with deliveries expected from 2031.

Red Sea Security & Defense Pact: Saudi Arabia’s Cabinet reaffirmed full support for Yemen’s legitimate government and backed the Makkah Alliance’s collective deterrence after renewed Houthi attacks, while Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan moved to implement their mutual defense commitments amid strikes targeting Saudi airports and energy sites. Oil & Trade Flows: Oil prices rose as markets weighed storm risks and Houthi pressure on Saudi supply, with Saudi officials saying the East-West pipeline is flowing around 5.8 million bpd and operations resumed after disruptions. Cybersecurity & World Cup Build: Hackers reportedly stole 1.5 million files from a Saudi World Cup construction consortium, including contracts, payment data and personal information tied to stadium work. Business & Investment: Saudi Aramco is pushing pipeline expansion with a new tender, while Arabian Drilling won a four-rig jack-up contract boosting its backlog to about SAR 18bn. Regional Diplomacy: Syria and Saudi Arabia discussed reconstruction and attracting Saudi investment, as Saudi FM calls with Egypt and Jordan stressed protecting Red Sea navigation. Economy & Markets: Global risk sentiment stayed upbeat as US stocks hit fresh highs, with Saudi-linked oil flow updates in focus. Human Rights: Growing public anger followed a Saudi court’s death sentence for a Sri Lankan migrant worker over a Facebook post.

Mecca Defence Pact: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye moved from pledges to practical collective defence, agreeing to rapid deployment of forces and capabilities to the Kingdom amid Houthi attacks, while condemning attempts to target Mecca and Medina. Yemen-Red Sea Security: Saudi-backed Yemeni forces pressed offensives around Bab el-Mandeb, with Houthis reporting missile/drone strikes on Saudi airports and Aramco facilities as the Red Sea and regional shipping risks keep energy markets jittery. Oil & Commodities: Gulf oil flows (excluding Iran) reportedly recovered to above 81% of pre-war levels, but tanker attacks around Hormuz are lifting insurance and freight costs; gold edged up as softer Fed expectations offset higher yields. Saudi Policy & People: Saudi Arabia will regularise the status of Yemeni nationals living in the Kingdom without authority, aligning with support for Yemen’s internationally recognised government. Saudi Business & Tech: PIF-owned HUMAIN picked EY to build an AI-native business process outsourcing service, while Riyadh’s flexible workspace market is set for rapid expansion. Sports/Media: LIV Golf secured an initial $300m funding commitment for a 2027 relaunch after bankruptcy, and Netflix named IMG as production partner for the FIFA Women’s World Cup Brazil 2027.

Red Sea Security & Energy Risk: Saudi-backed Yemeni forces pushed toward Mocha and the Bab el-Mandeb coast, but the Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi sites including Riyadh’s King Khalid airport and an Aramco refinery in Rabigh, keeping shipping and oil-route fears front and center. Collective Defence: Pakistan and Türkiye agreed with Saudi Arabia to immediately operationalise the Makkah Alliance defence commitments, including rapid deployment of agreed capabilities to the Kingdom amid Houthi threats. Oil Markets: Crude prices eased as Middle East exports showed resilience and G7 emergency stock releases supported supply sentiment, while Saudi Aramco warned global oil inventories are “scarily thin” and rebuilding could take about two years. Power & Infrastructure: L&T secured power transmission and substation orders across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and India, aimed at grid strengthening and renewable power evacuation. Aviation Incident: Flydubai co-pilot Hammam al-Hammami, accused in a cockpit axe attack, spent 175 days in New Zealand as investigations continue. Trade & Policy: Saudi Arabia approved duty-free livestock imports for specialised farms to boost exports, alongside corporate restructuring of the livestock sector.

Yemen War & Red Sea Trade: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington will “live by” its security pact with Saudi Arabia as Saudi-led forces step up operations against Iran-backed Houthis, with fighting around Bab el-Mandeb raising risks for a key global shipping lane. Energy Infrastructure Under Pressure: Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline was hit again near Khurais, halting pumping after “big damage,” underlining how attacks are disrupting Riyadh’s crude logistics. Oil Market Outlook: Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned global oil stockpiles are “scarily thin” and rebuilding inventories could take up to two years, even as crude flows near pre-war levels. Saudi Economy & Spending Cuts: Saudi Arabia is set to cancel next year’s Joy Awards amid financial strain and the Iran war’s hit to the entertainment sector. Aviation & Connectivity: flyadeal launched a non-stop Mumbai–Riyadh route, while Riyadh Air opened ticket sales for a new Riyadh–Jakarta service, boosting Saudi–Asia travel links. Standards & Business Enablement: ISO unveiled ISO 9001:2026 with an Arabic edition, expanding access to quality management standards across the Arab region.

Yemen War & Red Sea Risk: Saudi-backed Yemen’s government announced a major counteroffensive to retake Houthi-held areas, while the Saudi-led coalition reiterated full operational support and warned of continued Houthi attacks on Saudi sites and shipping near Bab el-Mandeb—raising fresh pressure on energy routes. Oil Markets: Brent slipped on Monday as G7 moves to release emergency diesel and crude eased near-term supply fears, but prices stayed sensitive to Middle East shipping disruption; separately, Saudi Arabia unexpectedly cut November crude oil prices to Asia while raising them for north-west Europe and the Mediterranean. OPEC+ Policy: OPEC+ agreed to keep oil output steady for November, with Saudi and other producers balancing revenue needs against inflation and geopolitical supply risks. Gold & Rates: Gold edged higher as softer US jobs data reduced expectations of an October Fed hike, keeping markets focused on the Fed path. Trade & Agriculture: Saudi Arabia expanded streamlined tourist visa access for Kosovo and Guyana and tightened fruit and vegetable import rules, requiring prior permits and stricter quarantine and documentation. Business & Real Estate: Al Othaim launched Al Othaim Developments, targeting over SAR16bn for integrated residential projects across Saudi cities. Aviation Security: Australia opened an investigation into the Flydubai co-pilot’s links after the attempted cockpit takeover incident, adding cross-border scrutiny to aviation security.

Oil Markets: OPEC+ will keep oil output unchanged for a second straight month in November, maintaining September 2026 production levels after a virtual review that included Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. Yemen Conflict & Energy Risk: Yemen’s Saudi-backed government says it has launched a major counteroffensive against Iran-backed Houthis, as the Houthis claim fresh missile and drone strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities including Riyadh and Khurais, with Saudi authorities yet to comment. Aviation Security: Investigations into the Flydubai cockpit attack continue after an Omani co-pilot allegedly tried to seize control and crash an Israel-bound flight; UAE prosecutors described it as a “terrorist act,” while Royal Air Maroc denied any prior employment links. Consumer Costs: LPG prices are rising amid supply shortages, with reports of 12kg cylinders selling well above official benchmarks, adding pressure to households. Saudi Business & Events: Saudi Arabia is set to cancel next year’s Joy Awards amid budget cuts and the Iran war’s impact on entertainment spending. Sports & Investment: Reuters reports Saudi is quietly shelving the $2.5bn Neom Stadium planned for the 2034 World Cup, citing delays and reduced scale.

Flydubai Terror Probe: Captain Smit Machchhar says his co-pilot asked to pray minutes before attacking him with a cockpit crash axe, as UAE and international reports point to extremist links and prior training concerns. Saudi-Yemen Energy Flashpoints: Fire and thick smoke were reported at an Aramco facility in Riyadh amid renewed Houthi claims of missile/drone strikes and Yemen’s retaliatory attacks on Saudi energy targets. Iran-US Pressure: Trump signalled a decision on Iran “very soon,” warning Tehran of “easy way or hard way,” while Camp David talks reportedly weigh options as diplomacy stalls. Trade & Food Rules: Saudi set tighter import conditions for fruits and vegetables, including 15-day permit validity and stricter pre-shipment approval timing. Agribusiness Export Win: Saudi retained top global date exports by value for a fourth straight year, with 2025 exports at SAR1.938bn. Travel Policy: Guyanese passport holders can now get Saudi e-visas or visas on arrival without needing US/UK/Schengen visas first. Markets Watch: Pakistan’s PSX ended the week lower, with the KSE-100 slipping below 170,000 amid geopolitics and oil-linked caution.

Saudi Economy Outlook: Al Rajhi Capital expects Saudi growth to stay resilient, with revenues rising 1% in 2027 to SAR1.2tn, spending down 3% to SAR1.4tn, and the fiscal deficit narrowing to SAR191bn (3.6% of GDP). Yemen/Red Sea Security: Saudi Arabia is weighing a major offensive to regain control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, with plans ranging from a limited push to wider strikes across Yemen; the UN warns at least 150,000 have fled fighting, while WFP warns Yemen faces a food security collapse. Energy Markets: The G7 agreed to release 100m barrels of oil and petroleum products via the IEA, including a major diesel release in the first 20 days, after prices surged. Aramco Incident: Flames and smoke were reported at an Aramco facility south of Riyadh, amid ongoing Houthi-linked attacks. Aviation Security Shock: UAE prosecutors say a Flydubai co-pilot allegedly attacked the captain with a crash axe in an attempted terrorist act; the flight diverted to Saudi Arabia and investigations continue. Business & Trade Signals: Saudi construction activity stayed in expansion territory in August, while Saudi-linked business confidence softened slightly.

Aviation & Security: A fire severely damaged Koder House in Fort Kochi, and within 24 hours a Flydubai Tel Aviv-bound flight incident put cockpit security and background checks back in focus, with reports saying the alleged Omani co-pilot had been banned from flying in Oman over extremist concerns. Yemen War & Energy Risk: Saudi-led strikes and counterclaims continued around Taiz as fighting killed dozens, while analysts warn the conflict keeps pressure on Red Sea shipping and regional energy flows. Saudi Defense Diplomacy: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye agreed in principle to hold an emergency Makkah Joint Defence Agreement meeting in Riyadh to assess Houthi threats, including attacks on Saudi and holy-site-linked infrastructure. Oil Markets: Oil price volatility stayed in the spotlight as Gulf supply and pipeline disruptions, plus Hormuz-related risks, shaped trading sentiment. Trade Policy: India’s Piyush Goyal pushed for WTO-compliant tools to tackle trade distortions and excess capacity at the G20, arguing for policy space for developing countries. Saudi Business & Tech: IFS partnered with Echelon to expand industrial AI in Saudi enterprises, signaling continued investment in AI-driven operations. Sports Business: Baseball United struck a long-term partnership with Saudi Arabia’s federation to launch pro franchises in Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam.